Yiaga Africa has confirmed that the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) official results for the 2026 Ekiti State governorship election are consistent with its own independent verification, but the election observer group raised serious concerns over widespread vote buying and inconsistencies in voter turnout data. Speaking in Ado-Ekiti on Sunday, Yiaga Africa presented findings from its Process and Results Verification for Transparency (PRVT) methodology, which showed that INEC’s declared results matched the ballots counted at polling units across the state. The group acknowledged improvements in INEC’s logistics and election conduct, including the early deployment of materials and personnel, prompt accreditation and voting processes, and a generally peaceful atmosphere during the election.
Despite these positive developments, Yiaga Africa highlighted critical issues that threaten the credibility of Nigeria’s electoral process. The group reported rampant voter inducement, weak management of sensitive electoral materials, and poor public communication regarding late administrative and judicial decisions. Most notably, Yiaga’s statistical projections estimated that the All Progressives Congress (APC) would secure between 83.9% and 87.1% of the votes, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) between 8.5% and 11.7%, and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) between 2.9% and 4.1%. These projections fell within the range of INEC’s announced results, indicating alignment in the final outcome.
However, a significant discrepancy emerged in voter turnout figures. Yiaga Africa estimated turnout to be between 34.1% and 38.2%, while INEC officially announced a turnout of 38.7%. The group suggested that INEC may have used the 2022 registered voters figure instead of the updated 2026 voter register, which could explain the variance. This mismatch raises questions about the accuracy and transparency of INEC’s data reporting mechanisms.
Yiaga Africa recommended that INEC urgently clarify the turnout discrepancy and strengthen quality control measures for sensitive materials ahead of future elections, including the 2027 general elections. The group also called on security agencies to intensify efforts to combat vote buying and voter intimidation. Political parties, it added, must improve training for polling agents on electoral laws and guidelines to ensure compliance and fairness. Additionally, Yiaga stressed the need to regulate the use of state resources and incumbency powers to level the playing field for all candidates.
While Yiaga Africa acknowledged that election administration has shown improvement, it warned that vote buying and management lapses remain serious threats to Nigeria’s electoral integrity. The findings underscore the importance of continued vigilance and reforms to build public trust in the democratic process. As Nigeria prepares for the next round of elections, these observations will be crucial in shaping policies that promote transparency, fairness, and accountability.
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