The departure of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso from the African Democratic Congress (ADC) ahead of the 2027 presidential election has sparked widespread concern over the future of Nigeria’s opposition coalition. The two prominent figures, who previously contested the 2023 presidential election on different platforms — Obi on the Labour Party (LP) and Kwankwaso on the New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP) — have now joined the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), raising questions about the opposition’s ability to mount a united challenge against President Bola Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Their exit has fractured the once-strong ADC alliance, which had been seen as the most viable opposition front in the coming election.
In 2023, Peter Obi won 12 states and secured over six million votes, matching the tally of Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), while Kwankwaso claimed victory in Kano State, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Their combined support base was expected to form a formidable force under the ADC banner. However, their decision to leave the coalition has been met with disappointment and skepticism, particularly from former ADC chieftain Solomon Dalung, who called their exit a “grave surprise” and criticized it as a failure to prioritize national interest over personal ambition.
Dalung argued that the Supreme Court’s recent ruling, which restored the ADC leadership and nullified earlier court orders, rendered the legal issues cited by Obi and Kwankwaso as “academic.” He emphasized that the ADC remains the strongest opposition party, citing its broad support base — including Atiku’s traditional followers and a significant portion of former President Muhammadu Buhari’s supporters. He further noted that the NDC’s chances of winning in 2027 are “very, very low,” especially given the fragmentation of Obi’s South-East stronghold and Kwankwaso’s weakened influence in Kano, where APC has gained ground.
Despite these concerns, political analyst Jide Ojo offered a different perspective, stating that Obi and Kwankwaso’s defection is within their constitutional rights and may be a strategic move to avoid being overshadowed by Atiku. He explained that behind-the-scenes negotiations between the two camps had broken down, with Obi refusing to accept a vice-presidential role and Atiku pushing for a reenactment of the 2019 ticket. Ojo stressed that politics involves risk-taking and that no one can predict election outcomes nine months before the vote, citing the unexpected defeat of Goodluck Jonathan in 2015.
Meanwhile, Dele Momodu, a staunch Atiku supporter, attributed the split to the growing influence of zoning politics, which he believes is being exploited by the Tinubu administration to deepen regional divisions. He criticized the focus on regional origins rather than national issues like electricity and insecurity. On the other hand, APC founding member Osita Okechukwu dismissed Atiku’s claim that zoning is “self-defeating,” arguing that Atiku himself benefited from zoning when he became Vice President under President Olusegun Obasanjo.
As the 2027 election looms, the political landscape remains fluid, with alliances shifting and rivalries intensifying. The fate of the opposition will depend on whether unity can be restored or if the current fragmentation will hand the APC a smoother path to re-election.
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